> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.podigee.com/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.podigee.com/documentation/grow-and-monetize/monetization/compare-forecast-revenue-with-actual-revenue.md).

# Compare forecast revenue with actual revenue

Compare planned, forecast, reserved, delivered, qualified, and settled revenue without mixing planning values with commercial evidence.

Use the Capacity page to estimate delivery and revenue before you book a Flight. Use Campaign performance, Evidence & Money, reports, and settlement records to check what happened later. A forecast helps you plan. It does not prove delivery, revenue, or a payout.

## Before you start

Select the correct Monetization workspace. You need permission to run Campaign forecasts. You need Campaign read permission to inspect actual Flight performance. You need report or finance permission to inspect governed or settled values.

## Know the value states

Read the state before you compare two values:

| State     | Where you use it               | Meaning                                                                    |
| --------- | ------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Planned   | Campaign and Flight setup      | The goal, rate, budget, and schedule entered by the operator.              |
| Forecast  | Campaign capacity              | A modelled estimate of expected delivery, revenue, cost, and contribution. |
| Reserved  | Capacity                       | Supply protected for a Flight. It is not delivery evidence.                |
| Delivered | Campaign performance           | Units recorded as delivered for a Flight. Check the metric definition.     |
| Qualified | Evidence & Money and reports   | Delivery evidence that passed the active measurement and validity rules.   |
| Settled   | Finance and settlement records | A qualified value included in an approved invoice, payout, or settlement.  |

The same Flight can have all six states. A later state does not rewrite the earlier plan or forecast.

## Read the forecast

1. Open **Monetization > Campaigns**.
2. Open the Campaign.
3. Select **Check and reserve capacity**.
4. Calculate or refresh the forecast for the required Flight.
5. Read the expected delivery, fill, revenue, delivery cost, and contribution.
6. Open **Assumptions and data quality**.

![The One Podigee Capacity page shows the video delivery and revenue outlook with expected fill, remaining supply, gross revenue, unsold opportunity, delivery cost, and contribution.](https://2032417310-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FbqUKO6lljHGzkEAzliPI%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-bc86b6785b8a476b186519304f2121e6fcaea00f%2Fdoc-monetization-037-video-revenue-opportunity.jpg?alt=media)

*Use the forecast to test a commercial plan before you reserve capacity.*

![The current One Podigee Capacity outlook shows a forecast freshness warning, expected delivery, expected fill, remaining sellable supply, modeled revenue, unsold opportunity, delivery cost, and after-delivery cost.](https://2032417310-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FbqUKO6lljHGzkEAzliPI%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-54b5c96afe37502bab58f062db472139b009ad70%2Fdoc-monetization-080-forecast-current.png?alt=media)

*Refresh an expired outlook before you use it for a new commercial decision. An existing reservation remains unchanged.*

The forecast uses the current Flight version, rate, price model, schedule, targeting, frequency rules, Inventory package, and available supply. If one of these inputs changes, calculate a new forecast before you make a new commitment.

## Understand forecast money

The forecast can show:

* **Forecast gross revenue**: expected delivery priced with the Flight rate.
* **Unsold opportunity**: remaining eligible supply priced with the same rate.
* **Estimated delivery cost**: expected delivery multiplied by the selected Inventory cost estimate.
* **After delivery cost**: forecast gross revenue minus estimated delivery cost.

For a CPM Flight, Podigee applies the rate per 1,000 qualified units. For a CPV or CPCV Flight, Podigee uses the configured view or completed-view unit. If the current price model has no deterministic formula, Podigee does not invent a revenue value.

Forecast contribution excludes fees, publisher shares, tax, and currency conversion unless the page explicitly includes them. Do not call forecast gross revenue net revenue or profit.

## Reserve only after you review the forecast

Selecting a forecast records the planning choice. It does not reserve capacity. Reserve capacity only after you confirm the expected range, available supply, cost confidence, and commercial terms. The reservation protects supply for the Flight, but it still does not create delivery evidence.

## Read actual delivery and revenue

1. Open **Monetization > Campaigns**.
2. Open the Campaign.
3. Read **Delivery, pace, and revenue**.
4. Compare each Flight's delivered units, remaining goal, pace, and qualified revenue with its forecast.
5. Open **Monetization > Evidence & Money** for the workspace view.
6. Use a governed report when you need a matching period, dimension, or currency.

![The current One Podigee Campaign view shows delivery, pace, and revenue for separate audio and video flights, with delivered units, remaining goals, and qualified revenue.](https://2032417310-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FbqUKO6lljHGzkEAzliPI%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-f8d7c46c7e3d1f7529c295099ca5eda249d4c76d%2Fdoc-monetization-072-campaign-performance.png?alt=media)

*Use Campaign performance to compare actual qualified evidence with the earlier plan.*

Campaign performance keeps audio and video Flights separate. It shows qualified delivery, pace, remaining goal, qualified revenue, and the latest evidence time. Evidence & Money adds the workspace period, fill rate, no-fill decisions, daily delivery, and media and currency breakdown.

## Compare the values

Use the same Flight version, period, time zone, billable unit, currency, and metric definition. Then compare:

1. planned goal with forecast expected delivery;
2. forecast expected delivery with qualified delivery;
3. forecast gross revenue with qualified revenue;
4. estimated delivery cost with recorded or reconciled delivery cost; and
5. qualified revenue with settled revenue after finance approval.

The difference between forecast and qualified delivery can come from fill, pacing, targeting, frequency, creative readiness, invalid traffic, late evidence, or a changed Flight version. The difference is not a fault until the source, period, and definition match.

## Example

A Campaign plans 100,000 audio impressions at EUR 20 CPM. The forecast expects 92,000 qualified impressions and shows EUR 1,840 forecast gross revenue. The Flight reserves 80,000 impressions. Later, Campaign performance shows 76,000 qualified impressions and EUR 1,520 qualified revenue.

Read the result as follows:

* 100,000 is the planned goal.
* 92,000 is the forecast estimate.
* 80,000 is protected capacity.
* 76,000 is qualified delivery.
* EUR 1,840 is modelled gross revenue before delivery.
* EUR 1,520 is qualified revenue before settlement.

The next check is the fill and no-fill evidence for the same period. Do not change the rate or report a shortfall to the buyer until you confirm that the Flight version, time zone, and qualification period match.

## Explain a difference

| Difference                                            | Check first                                                                                                     |
| ----------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Forecast delivery is higher than qualified delivery   | Fill, pacing, no-fill reasons, invalid traffic, and late evidence.                                              |
| Qualified delivery is higher than the old forecast    | Forecast expiry, a later Flight version, additional capacity, or changed targeting.                             |
| Forecast revenue is missing                           | Price model, positive rate, currency, and required commercial terms.                                            |
| Qualified revenue differs from forecast gross revenue | Actual qualified quantity, the active rate version, reversals, and the evidence period.                         |
| After delivery cost is missing                        | Matching Inventory cost estimate and compatible currency.                                                       |
| Settled revenue differs from qualified revenue        | Approved fees, publisher share, tax, currency conversion, adjustments, or settlement status.                    |
| A reserved Flight has no qualified delivery           | Reservation protects supply. Check publication, creative readiness, delivery decisions, and evidence freshness. |

If the difference remains, open a governed report or reconciliation case. Include the Flight, Campaign version, period, time zone, metric definition, and data-as-of time.

## Expected result

You can explain how a planned goal became a forecast, a reservation, qualified delivery, qualified revenue, and finally a settled value. You can identify a real delivery or commercial issue without mistaking a modelled estimate, protected capacity, delivery cost, fee, or payout for earned revenue.


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