> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.podigee.com/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.podigee.com/documentation/grow-and-monetize/monetization/compare-forecast-scenarios.md).

# Compare forecast scenarios

Compare available supply, expected delivery, fill, revenue, cost, confidence, and constraints before you select a Campaign forecast.

Use a forecast to test whether each Campaign Flight can meet its goal. The Podigee Audio Video Ad Server shows the current forecast for every Flight on one Capacity page. You can compare the delivery result, commercial result, data quality, and constraint before you select a forecast.

A forecast is planning evidence. It does not reserve supply. Select the forecast that you want to use, then reserve capacity when you are ready to protect the commercial promise.

## Prerequisites

Before you start, make sure that you have these items:

* Permission to run Campaign forecasts in Monetization.
* A Campaign with one or more Flights.
* A published Inventory package for each Flight.
* A delivery goal, schedule, media type, rate, and billable unit for each Flight.
* Current targeting and frequency controls.
* A volume and delivery cost estimate for the Inventory package when you need cost and contribution values.

## Calculate the current forecasts

1. Open **Monetization**.
2. Select **Campaigns**.
3. Open the required Campaign.
4. Select **Check and reserve capacity**.
5. Find the first Flight.
6. Select **Calculate forecast**.
7. Wait until the current forecast appears.
8. Repeat the calculation for each Flight that you want to compare.

Select **Recalculate forecast** when a forecast is stale or when an input changed. A new Flight version, Inventory package version, reservation, or expired validity period can make an earlier forecast unsuitable for the current decision.

## Compare the delivery result

Review these values for each Flight:

| Value                     | Meaning                                                | What to check                                                             |
| ------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Requested                 | The delivery goal for the Flight.                      | It must match the buyer commitment.                                       |
| Available                 | Supply that the current forecast can use.              | It must cover the requested amount before you make a guaranteed promise.  |
| Expected range            | The lower and upper planning range.                    | Use the range to understand uncertainty. Do not use only the upper value. |
| Planned delivery          | The exact Flight goal.                                 | Compare it with expected delivery.                                        |
| Expected delivery         | The current modeled delivery result.                   | It must support the commercial decision.                                  |
| Expected fill             | Expected delivery as a percentage of planned delivery. | A low value needs a smaller goal, more supply, or fewer limits.           |
| Remaining sellable supply | Supply that is not needed for this Flight.             | It can show room for another sale. It is not reserved supply.             |

This audio Flight requests 750,000 qualified impressions. The current supply can provide only 592,329. Podigee shows the exact shortage and gives a safe correction path.

![The One Podigee Capacity page shows an audio Flight that cannot cover its goal, with requested supply, available supply, expected range, fill, revenue, and delivery cost.](https://2032417310-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FbqUKO6lljHGzkEAzliPI%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-8d85d44d55695e8e8c75d82954c04ae242eeebc2%2Fdoc-monetization-037-audio-capacity-constraint.jpg?alt=media)

*The warning identifies insufficient eligible supply as the constraint. Reduce the goal or select suitable Inventory before you continue.*

Do not select an insufficient forecast for a guaranteed commitment. Adjust the Flight or its Inventory package, then calculate a new forecast.

## Compare the commercial result

Review these values after you review delivery:

| Value                   | Meaning                                                      | Important limit                                                        |
| ----------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Planned value           | The current commercial value recorded for the Flight.        | It is not earned revenue.                                              |
| Forecast gross revenue  | Expected delivery priced with the Flight rate.               | It is a model, not an invoice or settlement record.                    |
| Unsold opportunity      | Remaining supply priced with the same rate.                  | It is a planning opportunity, not booked revenue.                      |
| Estimated delivery cost | Expected delivery multiplied by the Inventory cost estimate. | It depends on the estimate and its confidence.                         |
| After delivery cost     | Forecast gross revenue minus estimated delivery cost.        | Fees, publisher shares, tax, and currency conversion are not included. |

The video Flight in this example has enough supply for its goal. It shows expected delivery, an 86.5 percent fill forecast, remaining supply, forecast revenue, delivery cost, and unsold opportunity.

![The One Podigee Capacity page shows the video delivery and revenue outlook with expected fill, remaining supply, gross revenue, unsold opportunity, delivery cost, and contribution.](https://2032417310-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FbqUKO6lljHGzkEAzliPI%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-bc86b6785b8a476b186519304f2121e6fcaea00f%2Fdoc-monetization-037-video-revenue-opportunity.jpg?alt=media)

*Use unsold opportunity to find possible additional sales. Confirm demand and capacity before you treat it as revenue.*

Compare values only when the Flights use compatible units. Do not compare an audio impression with a video start as if they were the same event. Compare each result with its own contract, measurement rule, and rate.

## Review confidence and data quality

Each forecast shows when it was calculated and when it is valid. It also shows an expected range. Open **Assumptions and data quality** to review the model basis.

![The One Podigee Capacity page shows the expanded forecast assumptions, fill range, delivery history status, revenue basis, delivery cost confidence, and excluded money items.](https://2032417310-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FbqUKO6lljHGzkEAzliPI%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-8af7e6b98ea7f03cbb570e74b4401b0f1f0e6919%2Fdoc-monetization-037-forecast-assumptions.jpg?alt=media)

*Read the assumptions before you use the forecast for a commercial decision.*

Check these items:

* The calculation time and validity time are current.
* The expected fill range is acceptable.
* Comparable finalized delivery history is available, or the page identifies that it is not yet available.
* The Inventory cost estimate has an acceptable confidence level.
* The revenue basis uses the correct Flight rate and price model.
* Excluded fees, shares, tax, and currency conversion are understood.

The forecast uses the exact frequency cap as an input. When listener-level opportunity data is not available, Podigee keeps a conservative reserve instead of claiming precision that it does not have. Review the frequency cap in the Flight editor when the forecast is lower than expected.

The forecast does not claim unique audience reach unless verified audience evidence supports that claim. Do not call expected impressions, downloads, or video starts unique reach.

## Find the cause of a weak forecast

Use the visible result to select the next action:

| Result                                          | Likely constraint                                                                             | Safe action                                                                        |
| ----------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Available is lower than requested               | The eligible Inventory cannot cover the goal.                                                 | Reduce the goal, widen an authorized limit, or select suitable Inventory.          |
| Available is high, but expected delivery is low | The model applies delivery uncertainty or planning reserves.                                  | Open the assumptions. Check history, targeting, frequency, and competing demand.   |
| Expected range is wide                          | The current evidence has high uncertainty.                                                    | Use a conservative commitment and improve the source data before you promise more. |
| Revenue is not calculated                       | The current price model has no deterministic forecast formula, or required terms are missing. | Correct the commercial terms. Do not invent a value.                               |
| Delivery cost is not available                  | The Inventory package has no compatible cost estimate.                                        | Add a governed cost estimate in the package.                                       |
| After delivery cost is not available            | Revenue and cost use different currencies, or one value is missing.                           | Correct the currency or missing estimate. Do not combine unlike currencies.        |
| The forecast is stale                           | A relevant version, reservation, or validity period changed.                                  | Select **Recalculate forecast**. Review the new result before you continue.        |

Each added targeting rule can reduce eligible supply. Do not remove a required market, consent, brand safety, or frequency rule only to improve the forecast.

## Select the forecast

1. Confirm that the Flight and Inventory versions are current.
2. Confirm that available supply covers the intended commitment.
3. Confirm the expected range and fill.
4. Confirm the revenue, cost, and excluded money items.
5. Confirm the assumptions and data quality.
6. Select **Use this forecast**.

The selected state records which current forecast the operator wants to use. It does not consume capacity and it does not create billing evidence.

## Expected result

Each required Flight has a current forecast. You understand its available supply, expected delivery, fill, commercial value, opportunity, cost, confidence, and visible constraint. The selected forecast matches the Flight that you intend to plan. No capacity is reserved yet.

Next, reserve capacity for the selected forecast.


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